State the claim
One sentence, one date, one horizon.
Public · read only
Research assay · Public run 001
Compute claims,
under load.
A public lab for testing what the AI infrastructure buildout says it will become against what the physical and financial record can actually support.
Research current through August 18, 2026 · Sources accessed August 18, 2026
Name the failure
Define the observation that changes our mind.
Keep the outcome
Rejects, corrections, and misses stay visible.
Claim registry
Nothing gets to be merely plausible.
Search the live record. Every card carries its own disproof condition, decision rule, evidence boundary, and resolution date.
07of 07 claims
CSA-2026-001CapitalMicrosoft
Microsoft will record approximately $190 billion of capital expenditures during calendar 2026, including about $25 billion attributed to higher component pricing.
MonitoringSupported with conditions
Published Aug 18, 2026Current through Aug 18, 2026Resolve by Feb 15, 2027
What would prove this wrong
Microsoft's subsequently disclosed calendar-2026 capital expenditures fall outside $171–209 billion, or the company materially revises the guidance before year-end.
Decision rule
Sum the four calendar-quarter capital-expenditure figures using Microsoft's disclosed definition, including finance leases. Supported if the total remains within ±10% of $190 billion.
Why it matters
It tests whether stated AI-infrastructure ambition converts into booked capital at the scale management now describes.
Open evidence, conditions, and audit trail
Evidence for
- Microsoft guided to roughly $190 billion for calendar 2026 on April 29, 2026.
Evidence against / limits
- Finance-lease timing introduces quarter-to-quarter variability.
- Approximately $25 billion is attributed to higher component pricing rather than incremental physical capacity.
Outcome pending
Calendar 2026This claim stays in the denominator until its registered resolution date.
CSA-2026-002CapitalMeta
Meta's full-year 2026 capital expenditures, including principal payments on finance leases, will finish within its $130–145 billion guidance range.
MonitoringSupported with conditions
Published Aug 18, 2026Current through Aug 18, 2026Resolve by Feb 28, 2027
What would prove this wrong
Meta's reported full-year 2026 capital expenditures are below $130 billion or above $145 billion on the same finance-lease-inclusive basis.
Decision rule
Use the full-year total in Meta's 2026 annual results. Boundary values count as supported; any restatement is applied before verdicting.
Why it matters
The outcome will show whether announced infrastructure demand survives execution, financing, and delivery constraints through year-end.
Open evidence, conditions, and audit trail
Evidence for
- Meta narrowed its range to $130–145 billion after reporting $31.08 billion in second-quarter capital expenditures.
Evidence against / limits
- Forward guidance can change with delivery timing, finance leases, or management reprioritization.
Outcome pending
Fiscal 2026This claim stays in the denominator until its registered resolution date.
CSA-2026-003DeploymentNVIDIA
Production shipments of NVIDIA Vera Rubin systems will begin during fall 2026.
MonitoringSupported with conditions
Published Aug 18, 2026Current through Aug 18, 2026Resolve by Dec 21, 2026
What would prove this wrong
No NVIDIA or named system partner publishes dated evidence of a production Vera Rubin system shipment to a customer by December 20, 2026.
Decision rule
Require a dated first-party shipment or customer-receipt disclosure naming a production system. Samples, internal builds, and availability promises do not count.
Why it matters
A real shipment is the bridge between a platform announcement and deployable next-generation compute supply.
Open evidence, conditions, and audit trail
Evidence for
- NVIDIA said the platform was ramping into full production and named multiple system builders in full-scale production.
Evidence against / limits
- The cited release schedules shipments for a future season and does not identify a completed customer shipment.
Outcome pending
Fall 2026This claim stays in the denominator until its registered resolution date.
CSA-2026-004PowerUnited States
U.S. data centers will consume between 9.5% and 15.3% of total U.S. electricity in 2030, with 11.8% as the reference case.
MonitoringSupported with conditions
Published Aug 18, 2026Current through Aug 18, 2026Resolve by Dec 31, 2031
What would prove this wrong
A reconciled federal or national-laboratory estimate for 2030 places the data-center share below 9.5% or above 15.3% using a materially comparable scope.
Decision rule
Use the first post-2030 national estimate that reconciles data-center electricity consumption with total U.S. electricity use. Record scope changes before comparison.
Why it matters
Power demand is a physical constraint on compute realization, and the range is wide enough that efficiency and deployment assumptions can materially change the outcome.
Open evidence, conditions, and audit trail
Evidence for
- LBNL's bottom-up model produces a 649 TWh reference case and a 521–843 TWh compounded-uncertainty range.
Evidence against / limits
- The report does not model major technology, market, supply-chain, regulatory, or grid-availability departures from its current trajectory.
Outcome pending
Calendar 2030This claim stays in the denominator until its registered resolution date.
CSA-2026-005CapitalAmazon
Amazon reported that trailing-twelve-month purchases of property and equipment increased $66.1 billion year over year through June 30, 2026, primarily reflecting artificial-intelligence investment.
ResolvedSupported
Published Aug 18, 2026Current through Jul 30, 2026Resolve by Jul 30, 2026
What would prove this wrong
Amazon corrects or restates the $66.1 billion year-over-year increase or withdraws its attribution that the increase primarily reflected AI investment.
Decision rule
Treat the claim as supported while the published result remains unrevised; downgrade if Amazon files a correction or a controlling filing conflicts with it.
Why it matters
It is a booked capital-flow observation rather than an announcement of future intent.
Open evidence, conditions, and audit trail
Evidence for
- Amazon's July 30 release gives both the amount and the stated primary purpose.
Evidence against / limits
- The disclosure does not provide a project-level allocation or separate AI from adjacent cloud infrastructure.
Observed outcome · Jul 30, 2026
Amazon reported the $66.1 billion year-over-year increase and attributed it primarily to AI investment.Supported on the company-reported basis; independent allocation remains out of scope.
CSA-2026-006DeploymentMicrosoft
Microsoft reported adding one gigawatt of capacity during its fiscal third quarter of 2026.
ResolvedSupported with conditions
Published Aug 18, 2026Current through Apr 29, 2026Resolve by Apr 29, 2026
What would prove this wrong
Microsoft corrects the statement, or a controlling disclosure shows that the one-gigawatt figure described contracted or announced capacity rather than added operational capacity.
Decision rule
Keep the conditional verdict until a site or fleet reconciliation independently substantiates the scope of 'capacity.'
Why it matters
Energized or usable capacity is closer to realized compute supply than announced campus nameplate capacity.
Open evidence, conditions, and audit trail
Evidence for
- Microsoft stated that it added another gigawatt of capacity during the quarter.
Evidence against / limits
- The transcript does not define the capacity boundary or enumerate the underlying sites.
Observed outcome · Apr 29, 2026
A one-gigawatt quarterly addition was reported in the earnings-call transcript.Conditionally supported pending independent or site-level reconciliation.
CSA-2026-007CapitalMeta
Meta recorded $31.08 billion of capital expenditures, including principal payments on finance leases, in the second quarter of 2026.
ResolvedSupported
Published Aug 18, 2026Current through Jul 29, 2026Resolve by Jul 29, 2026
What would prove this wrong
Meta corrects or restates its second-quarter 2026 capital-expenditure figure on the stated basis.
Decision rule
Supported while the result remains unrevised in subsequent controlling disclosures.
Why it matters
It anchors the full-year guidance to an observed quarterly capital deployment figure.
Open evidence, conditions, and audit trail
Evidence for
- Meta's second-quarter operational highlights report $31.08 billion.
Evidence against / limits
- The release does not allocate the total across AI, non-AI, land, buildings, and equipment.
Observed outcome · Jul 29, 2026
Meta reported $31.08 billion on the finance-lease-inclusive basis.Supported; no finer infrastructure allocation is inferred.
Outcome ledger
The denominator stays on the page.
Resolved observations remain beside open forecasts. A correction changes the verdict; it does not erase the record.
ClaimObservedDispositionVerdict
CSA-2026-005Amazon2026-07-30Supported on the company-reported basis; independent allocation remains out of scope.SupportedCSA-2026-006Microsoft2026-04-29Conditionally supported pending independent or site-level reconciliation.Supported with conditionsCSA-2026-007Meta2026-07-29Supported; no finer infrastructure allocation is inferred.SupportedCSA-2026-001MicrosoftDue 2027-02-15Outcome pending; registered rule is frozen.MonitoringCSA-2026-002MetaDue 2027-02-28Outcome pending; registered rule is frozen.MonitoringCSA-2026-003NVIDIADue 2026-12-21Outcome pending; registered rule is frozen.MonitoringCSA-2026-004United StatesDue 2031-12-31Outcome pending; registered rule is frozen.MonitoringRelight Labs Assay alignment
A claim is a testable object, not a mood.
CSA adapts the Assay to public compute infrastructure. Generation stays separate from judgment. Source quality, uncertainty, concentration, and outcome resolution are visible on the same record.
Read the Relight Labs Assay ↗- 01Register
Freeze the wording, date, horizon, falsifier, and decision rule.
- 02Source
Prefer controlling disclosures and primary research. Label the boundary of each source.
- 03Challenge
Record contrary evidence and conditions before the outcome arrives.
- 04Resolve
Apply the frozen rule once. Not evaluable is a verdict, not an escape hatch.
The registered rule passed on the available evidence.
The claim survives, but named evidence boundaries remain material.
The registered falsifier fired or the evidence contradicts the claim.
The required observation is unavailable or the comparison is invalid.
Evidence index
Five sources. Every boundary disclosed.
SRC-MSFT-FY26-Q3Microsoft Fiscal Year 2026 Third Quarter Earnings Conference CallMicrosoft Investor Relations · 2026-04-29 · Company disclosure
Management guidance and self-reported operating data; not independent verification.
SRC-META-2026-Q2Meta Reports Second Quarter 2026 ResultsMeta Investor Relations · 2026-07-29 · Company disclosureCompany-reported results and forward guidance; subject to the release's risk factors.
SRC-AMZN-2026-Q2Amazon.com Announces Second Quarter ResultsAmazon Investor Relations · 2026-07-30 · Company disclosureCompany attribution of investment purpose; no independent allocation audit is disclosed.
SRC-NVDA-RUBIN-MAY26NVIDIA Vera Rubin Ramps Into Full ProductionNVIDIA Investor Relations · 2026-05-31 · Company disclosureVendor production and shipment schedule; customer acceptance is a separate observable.
SRC-LBNL-DC-ENERGY-2025-UPDATEUnited States Data Center Energy Usage Report: 2025 UpdateLawrence Berkeley National Laboratory · 2026-06-18 · Government-sponsored researchScenario model based on equipment shipments and operating assumptions, not a measured 2030 outcome.