{"generatedAt":"2026-08-18","methodologyVersion":"1.0.0","claims":[{"id":"CSA-2026-001","slug":"microsoft-2026-capex","category":"Capital","entity":"Microsoft","statement":"Microsoft will record approximately $190 billion of capital expenditures during calendar 2026, including about $25 billion attributed to higher component pricing.","publishedAt":"2026-08-18","asOf":"2026-08-18","horizon":"Calendar 2026","resolutionDate":"2027-02-15","lifecycle":"Monitoring","verdict":"Supported with conditions","verdictNote":"The amount is current management guidance, not an observed full-year result.","whyItMatters":"It tests whether stated AI-infrastructure ambition converts into booked capital at the scale management now describes.","falsifier":"Microsoft's subsequently disclosed calendar-2026 capital expenditures fall outside $171–209 billion, or the company materially revises the guidance before year-end.","decisionRule":"Sum the four calendar-quarter capital-expenditure figures using Microsoft's disclosed definition, including finance leases. Supported if the total remains within ±10% of $190 billion.","evidenceFor":["Microsoft guided to roughly $190 billion for calendar 2026 on April 29, 2026."],"evidenceAgainst":["Finance-lease timing introduces quarter-to-quarter variability.","Approximately $25 billion is attributed to higher component pricing rather than incremental physical capacity."],"sourceIds":["SRC-MSFT-FY26-Q3"],"revision":{"version":1,"updatedAt":"2026-08-18","note":"Initial public registration."}},{"id":"CSA-2026-002","slug":"meta-2026-capex-range","category":"Capital","entity":"Meta","statement":"Meta's full-year 2026 capital expenditures, including principal payments on finance leases, will finish within its $130–145 billion guidance range.","publishedAt":"2026-08-18","asOf":"2026-08-18","horizon":"Fiscal 2026","resolutionDate":"2027-02-28","lifecycle":"Monitoring","verdict":"Supported with conditions","verdictNote":"The range is management guidance narrowed after the second quarter.","whyItMatters":"The outcome will show whether announced infrastructure demand survives execution, financing, and delivery constraints through year-end.","falsifier":"Meta's reported full-year 2026 capital expenditures are below $130 billion or above $145 billion on the same finance-lease-inclusive basis.","decisionRule":"Use the full-year total in Meta's 2026 annual results. Boundary values count as supported; any restatement is applied before verdicting.","evidenceFor":["Meta narrowed its range to $130–145 billion after reporting $31.08 billion in second-quarter capital expenditures."],"evidenceAgainst":["Forward guidance can change with delivery timing, finance leases, or management reprioritization."],"sourceIds":["SRC-META-2026-Q2"],"revision":{"version":1,"updatedAt":"2026-08-18","note":"Initial public registration."}},{"id":"CSA-2026-003","slug":"vera-rubin-production-shipments","category":"Deployment","entity":"NVIDIA","statement":"Production shipments of NVIDIA Vera Rubin systems will begin during fall 2026.","publishedAt":"2026-08-18","asOf":"2026-08-18","horizon":"Fall 2026","resolutionDate":"2026-12-21","lifecycle":"Monitoring","verdict":"Supported with conditions","verdictNote":"NVIDIA reports full production, but the registered outcome requires shipment evidence rather than manufacturing-status language alone.","whyItMatters":"A real shipment is the bridge between a platform announcement and deployable next-generation compute supply.","falsifier":"No NVIDIA or named system partner publishes dated evidence of a production Vera Rubin system shipment to a customer by December 20, 2026.","decisionRule":"Require a dated first-party shipment or customer-receipt disclosure naming a production system. Samples, internal builds, and availability promises do not count.","evidenceFor":["NVIDIA said the platform was ramping into full production and named multiple system builders in full-scale production."],"evidenceAgainst":["The cited release schedules shipments for a future season and does not identify a completed customer shipment."],"sourceIds":["SRC-NVDA-RUBIN-MAY26"],"revision":{"version":1,"updatedAt":"2026-08-18","note":"Initial public registration."}},{"id":"CSA-2026-004","slug":"us-data-center-electricity-2030","category":"Power","entity":"United States","statement":"U.S. data centers will consume between 9.5% and 15.3% of total U.S. electricity in 2030, with 11.8% as the reference case.","publishedAt":"2026-08-18","asOf":"2026-08-18","horizon":"Calendar 2030","resolutionDate":"2031-12-31","lifecycle":"Monitoring","verdict":"Supported with conditions","verdictNote":"This is a model-derived scenario range; it is not yet an observed share.","whyItMatters":"Power demand is a physical constraint on compute realization, and the range is wide enough that efficiency and deployment assumptions can materially change the outcome.","falsifier":"A reconciled federal or national-laboratory estimate for 2030 places the data-center share below 9.5% or above 15.3% using a materially comparable scope.","decisionRule":"Use the first post-2030 national estimate that reconciles data-center electricity consumption with total U.S. electricity use. Record scope changes before comparison.","evidenceFor":["LBNL's bottom-up model produces a 649 TWh reference case and a 521–843 TWh compounded-uncertainty range."],"evidenceAgainst":["The report does not model major technology, market, supply-chain, regulatory, or grid-availability departures from its current trajectory."],"sourceIds":["SRC-LBNL-DC-ENERGY-2025-UPDATE"],"revision":{"version":1,"updatedAt":"2026-08-18","note":"Initial public registration."}},{"id":"CSA-2026-005","slug":"amazon-ai-ppe-step-up","category":"Capital","entity":"Amazon","statement":"Amazon reported that trailing-twelve-month purchases of property and equipment increased $66.1 billion year over year through June 30, 2026, primarily reflecting artificial-intelligence investment.","publishedAt":"2026-08-18","asOf":"2026-07-30","horizon":"Trailing twelve months ended June 30, 2026","resolutionDate":"2026-07-30","lifecycle":"Resolved","verdict":"Supported","verdictNote":"The amount and management attribution appear directly in Amazon's second-quarter release; the allocation was not independently audited by this lab.","whyItMatters":"It is a booked capital-flow observation rather than an announcement of future intent.","falsifier":"Amazon corrects or restates the $66.1 billion year-over-year increase or withdraws its attribution that the increase primarily reflected AI investment.","decisionRule":"Treat the claim as supported while the published result remains unrevised; downgrade if Amazon files a correction or a controlling filing conflicts with it.","evidenceFor":["Amazon's July 30 release gives both the amount and the stated primary purpose."],"evidenceAgainst":["The disclosure does not provide a project-level allocation or separate AI from adjacent cloud infrastructure."],"sourceIds":["SRC-AMZN-2026-Q2"],"outcome":{"observedAt":"2026-07-30","result":"Amazon reported the $66.1 billion year-over-year increase and attributed it primarily to AI investment.","disposition":"Supported on the company-reported basis; independent allocation remains out of scope."},"revision":{"version":1,"updatedAt":"2026-08-18","note":"Initial public registration with observed outcome."}},{"id":"CSA-2026-006","slug":"microsoft-q3-capacity-addition","category":"Deployment","entity":"Microsoft","statement":"Microsoft reported adding one gigawatt of capacity during its fiscal third quarter of 2026.","publishedAt":"2026-08-18","asOf":"2026-04-29","horizon":"Fiscal Q3 2026","resolutionDate":"2026-04-29","lifecycle":"Resolved","verdict":"Supported with conditions","verdictNote":"The observation is supported by management's statement but lacks a disclosed site-by-site reconciliation.","whyItMatters":"Energized or usable capacity is closer to realized compute supply than announced campus nameplate capacity.","falsifier":"Microsoft corrects the statement, or a controlling disclosure shows that the one-gigawatt figure described contracted or announced capacity rather than added operational capacity.","decisionRule":"Keep the conditional verdict until a site or fleet reconciliation independently substantiates the scope of 'capacity.'","evidenceFor":["Microsoft stated that it added another gigawatt of capacity during the quarter."],"evidenceAgainst":["The transcript does not define the capacity boundary or enumerate the underlying sites."],"sourceIds":["SRC-MSFT-FY26-Q3"],"outcome":{"observedAt":"2026-04-29","result":"A one-gigawatt quarterly addition was reported in the earnings-call transcript.","disposition":"Conditionally supported pending independent or site-level reconciliation."},"revision":{"version":1,"updatedAt":"2026-08-18","note":"Initial public registration with conditional outcome."}},{"id":"CSA-2026-007","slug":"meta-q2-capex","category":"Capital","entity":"Meta","statement":"Meta recorded $31.08 billion of capital expenditures, including principal payments on finance leases, in the second quarter of 2026.","publishedAt":"2026-08-18","asOf":"2026-07-29","horizon":"Quarter ended June 30, 2026","resolutionDate":"2026-07-29","lifecycle":"Resolved","verdict":"Supported","verdictNote":"The value is a reported quarterly result using Meta's disclosed finance-lease-inclusive definition.","whyItMatters":"It anchors the full-year guidance to an observed quarterly capital deployment figure.","falsifier":"Meta corrects or restates its second-quarter 2026 capital-expenditure figure on the stated basis.","decisionRule":"Supported while the result remains unrevised in subsequent controlling disclosures.","evidenceFor":["Meta's second-quarter operational highlights report $31.08 billion."],"evidenceAgainst":["The release does not allocate the total across AI, non-AI, land, buildings, and equipment."],"sourceIds":["SRC-META-2026-Q2"],"outcome":{"observedAt":"2026-07-29","result":"Meta reported $31.08 billion on the finance-lease-inclusive basis.","disposition":"Supported; no finer infrastructure allocation is inferred."},"revision":{"version":1,"updatedAt":"2026-08-18","note":"Initial public registration with observed outcome."}}],"sources":[{"id":"SRC-MSFT-FY26-Q3","title":"Microsoft Fiscal Year 2026 Third Quarter Earnings Conference Call","publisher":"Microsoft Investor Relations","url":"https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/investor/events/fy-2026/earnings-fy-2026-q3","publishedAt":"2026-04-29","accessedAt":"2026-08-18","kind":"Company disclosure","locator":"Transcript lines covering capacity additions and 2026 capital-expenditure guidance","scopeNote":"Management guidance and self-reported operating data; not independent verification."},{"id":"SRC-META-2026-Q2","title":"Meta Reports Second Quarter 2026 Results","publisher":"Meta Investor Relations","url":"https://investor.atmeta.com/investor-news/press-release-details/2026/Meta-Reports-Second-Quarter-2026-Results/default.aspx","publishedAt":"2026-07-29","accessedAt":"2026-08-18","kind":"Company disclosure","locator":"Operational highlights and CFO outlook commentary","scopeNote":"Company-reported results and forward guidance; subject to the release's risk factors."},{"id":"SRC-AMZN-2026-Q2","title":"Amazon.com Announces Second Quarter Results","publisher":"Amazon Investor Relations","url":"https://ir.aboutamazon.com/news-release/news-release-details/2026/Amazon-com-Announces-Second-Quarter-Results/default.aspx","publishedAt":"2026-07-30","accessedAt":"2026-08-18","kind":"Company disclosure","locator":"Second-quarter results, trailing-twelve-month cash-flow discussion","scopeNote":"Company attribution of investment purpose; no independent allocation audit is disclosed."},{"id":"SRC-NVDA-RUBIN-MAY26","title":"NVIDIA Vera Rubin Ramps Into Full Production","publisher":"NVIDIA Investor Relations","url":"https://investor.nvidia.com/news/press-release-details/2026/NVIDIA-Vera-Rubin-Ramps-Into-Full-Production-to-Power-Agentic-AI-Factories-Worldwide/default.aspx","publishedAt":"2026-05-31","accessedAt":"2026-08-18","kind":"Company disclosure","locator":"Availability section","scopeNote":"Vendor production and shipment schedule; customer acceptance is a separate observable."},{"id":"SRC-LBNL-DC-ENERGY-2025-UPDATE","title":"United States Data Center Energy Usage Report: 2025 Update","publisher":"Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory","url":"https://doi.org/10.71468/P1RP4F","publishedAt":"2026-06-18","accessedAt":"2026-08-18","kind":"Government-sponsored research","locator":"Executive summary and Table 2, pages 5–10","scopeNote":"Scenario model based on equipment shipments and operating assumptions, not a measured 2030 outcome."}]}